Decision Resources, a research and advisory firm for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the launch and uptake of novel oral anticoagulants and antiarrhythmic agents — specifically, drugs from Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer/Johnson & Johnson, Bristol-Myers Squibb/Pfizer and Sanofi-Aventis — will drive the atrial fibrillation drug market to increase more than eight-fold, from $843 million in 2009 to $6.8 billion in 2019.

The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Atrial Fibrillation reveal that the sales of novel oral anticoagulants will be led by Boehringer Ingelheim’s Pradaxa, Bayer/Johnson & Johnson’s Xarelto and Bristol-Myers Squibb/Pfizer’s apixaban. In 2019, novel oral anticoagulants will capture nearly three-quarters of the atrial fibrillation drug market in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.

Market growth will also be driven by Sanofi-Aventis’s Multaq, a recent addition to the antiarrhythmic drug armamentarium. In a pivotal Phase III clinical trial, Multaq was shown to reduce rates of hospitalization in atrial fibrillation patients. However, despite this promising development, Multaq will face a number of challenges to gain traction in the market.

“Multaq’s primary challenge will be its modest antiarrhythmic efficacy compared with that of its main competitor, amiodarone (Sanofi-Aventis’s Cordarone, generics),” said Decision Resources Analyst Matthew Killeen, Ph.D. “Nevertheless, we expect that Multaq’s expansion into the permanent atrial fibrillation patient segment will catalyze stronger rates of uptake across all patient populations. As a result, we forecast Multaq to garner sales of more than $650 million in 2019.” The Pharmacor 2010 findings also reveal that the launch and uptake of the IV formulation of Cardiome/Astellas/Merck’s Kynapid/Brinavess for the acute cardioversion of atrial fibrillation will be particularly robust in the U.S. where cardioversion therapy is dominated by a handful of branded products. In Europe, Kynapid/Brinavess will face strong competition in the form of low-cost class IC agents which will constrain the drug’s uptake in this region.