Moderna resizes its manufacturing footprint for a post-pandemic era

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) is progressing on efforts to resume revenue growth in 2025 — even as COVID-19 vaccine sales decline now that the virus is endemic versus a pandemic.

During a presentation at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference this week, Moderna CFO Jamey Mock noted that the company took a charge of $1.6 billion during the second half of 2023 as it resized its manufacturing footprint.

Meanwhile, the company is betting on a diverse pipeline that relies on its mRNA platform. The company enters 2024 with 45 therapeutic and vaccine programs, including nine in late-stage development. Key highlights include:

• Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine: Moderna expects regulatory approvals starting in the first half of this year for its vaccine to prevent RSV-associated lower respiratory tract disease and acute respiratory disease in adults 60 and up. The company says it will have the only pre-filled syringe product available at launch and has worked to generate consumer awareness and demand.
• Next-generation COVID-19 vaccine: Even as the market for COVID-19 shrinks, Moderna boosted its U.S. COVID-19 vaccine market share to 48% in 2023, up from 37% in 2022. Moderna’s next-generation, refrigerator-stable COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1283) is currently in its pivotal Phase 3 study, with data expected during the first half of 2024.
• Seasonal flu vaccine: Moderna’s seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) has shown promising results in trials, with plans for regulatory filings in 2024.
• Latent and other vaccines: The cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine is in a pivotal Phase 3 study, with potential efficacy data expected in 2024.
• Oncology Therapeutics: The Individualized Neoantigen Therapy (INT) program, in partnership with Merck, is expanding, with positive results in reducing the risk of recurrence or death in melanoma patients.
• Rare Disease Therapeutics: Pivotal studies for propionic acidemia and methylmalonic acidemia are planned for 2024.

Moderna, which had more than $19 billion in revenue in 2022, saw it decline to $6.7 billion in 2023 and expects it to go down to roughly $4 billion in 2024. But after that, it expects revenue growth to resume in 2025, with the company breaking even in 2026 through product launches and disciplined investment.

“From here on out, we’ve invested in a pipeline that continues to bring new drugs and vaccines to market every single year,” Mock said.

Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel added in a news release that 2024 is going to be an exciting year: “Through these product launches, we are focused on returning to sales growth in 2025.”