NEW YORK, NY (October 25, 2004) – Sales of products incorporating emergingnanotechnology will rise from less than 0.1 percent of global manufacturing outputtoday to 15 percent in 2014, totaling $2.6 trillion, according to a new report fromLux Research entitled “Sizing Nanotechnology’s Value Chain.” This value will approach the size of the information technology and telecom industries combined and will be 10 times larger than biotechnology revenues, Lux said.
However, sales of basic nanomaterials like carbon nanotubes and quantum dots will total only $13 billion in 2014: Nanotechnology’s economic impact will arise from howthese fundamental building blocks are used, not from sales of the materials themselves.
The report refutes the popular misconception that nanotechnology is anindustry or a sector, Lux said, contending that nanotechnology is a set of toolsand processes for manipulating matter that can be applied to virtually anymanufactured good.
Rather than envisioning a mythical “nanotechnology market,” Lux recommends that executives focus on how nanotechnology is being exploited across industry value chains, from basic materials to intermediate products to final goods. The report presents separate forecasts by each value chain stage as well as by sector and region.
“Over the past several years, companies have selectively applied nanoscale innovations to products ranging from the Chevrolet Impala to Merck’s anti-emetic drug Emend,” Matthew Nordan, vice president of research at Lux, said. “These initial deployments have proven the value of nanotechnology, setting the stage for an explosion of applications.
“In 2014, we project that 4 percent of general manufactured goods, 50 percent of electronics and IT products, and 16 percent of goods in healthcare and life sciences by revenue will incorporate emerging nanotechnology,” Lux said.
Lux Research predicts that nanotechnology’s growth will occur in three phases:
· In the first phase, ending this year, nanotechnology is being incorporated selectively into high-end products. In 2004 revenues from products incorporating emerging nanotechnology will total $13 billion, $8.5 billion of which lies in automotive and aerospace applications.
· Through 2009, commercial breakthroughs will unlock markets for nanotechnology innovations, with revenues rising to $292 billion. Electronics and IT applications will dominate as microprocessors and memory chips built using new nanoscale processes come to market.
· From 2010 onwards, nanotechnology will become commonplace in manufactured goods, with revenues rising to $2.6 trillion in 2014. Healthcare and life sciences applications will finally become significant in this period as nano-enabled pharmaceuticals and medical devices emerge from lengthy human trials.
The widespread use of nanotechnology in mainstream products will haveprofound ripple effects. Ten million manufacturing jobs worldwide in 2014 –11 percent of total manufacturing jobs — will involve building products thatincorporate emerging nanotechnology, Lux said.
Nanotechnology will shift market shares and introduce unconventional competitors: For example, silicon nanowire display printing technologies could cut capital requirements for flat-screen display plants by an order of magnitude, tempting fleet-footed manufacturers like Dell to enter the market, the research company said.
Supply chains will simplify as highly functional materials eliminate steps in manufacturing processes, negatively impacting sub-assembly manufacturers and transportation companies while making value-added taxes more productive for governments than sales taxes.
For “Sizing Nanotechnology’s Value Chain,” Lux Research said it built bottom-up,top-down, and evolutionary models of 42 product segments impacted bynanotechnology. The report team populated the models through secondary research; interviews with more than 100 executives, researchers, and academics working to commercialize nanotechnology; and integration of macroeconomic data from organizations such as the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the World Bank.
Lux partnered with UK-based Volterra Consulting to build evolutionary modelsthat measure how nano-enabled solutions compete for market share with alternatives.
Lux Research is a research and advisory firm focusing on the business and economic impact of nanotechnology and related emerging technologies.